You had better find a new company to blog. I doubt Nortel is going to exist in the next few quarters. Mike Z sure did a good job of turning things around.
broadbandbill
· 1 year ago
Mark,
Thank for updating your post.
Correction: Mark Sue is implying that IT managers would stay with their incumbent suppliers (read: Cisco) thus making it more difficult for Nortel to snag market share away ‘incumbent enterprise networking vendors’ while your interpretation is somewhat different. Bottom line: if the alternative to Cisco is not well-positioned or appears weak then there is no alternative!
bb
The Psychiatrist
· 1 year ago
Mark Sue's analysis is about as good as a screen door on a submarine
Any analyst who changes their estimates on a company 10 times within a year tells me that their analysis wasn't much of an analysis to begin with.
Mark Sue -you put a price target of $32 on Nortel just a little over a year ago,now you've cut that target by a whopping 80 percent,this only leads me to believe that your analytical abilities are an embarrassment to you and your firm!
Allan Lee, BBA, CGA
· 1 year ago
Either Mark Sue is a complete idiot or his is doing a bang up job fooling you suckers. Folks, I have a completed 5 Eliott Waves "locked in" from $37 down to $5, and the 5th Elliott Wave (down) ended in a terminal impulse. This particular Eliott Wave has the 3rd extended wave which clearly sub-divides.
You are looking at a minimum of $4 - $5 move to the upside in less time than it took for the 5th wave to form based on Neowave theory on terminal impulse (Glen Neely)
protospherical1
· 1 year ago
Don't go too hard on the analysts, after all they only go by what Nortel feeds them.
20 was no buy a year ago and 3 years into this 5 year fix looks increasingly unlikely at this rate.
There were plenty of new lows made this year alone to be optimistic about forming any bottom and so many analysts traditionally error all the way down overstating so how much worse will it really get.
I anticipate a lot more will be coming to the conclusion that Nortel will not be around much longer at this rate. Alzman score is already off the charts,
broadbandbill
· 1 year ago
Allen Lee, BBA, SGA,
Firstly dude (or dudes), you need to simplify your name(s). Try A+B +S=L^3. Second, just because we have no life (only people with no life post on blogs like this one) do not assume that we are suckers or stupid; we know that the Chinese walls within the brokerage firms are actually made in Taiwan :).
Third (and this is on a personal note), while you are doing all these ‘wave’ theories can you please tell me if any of them can confirm the existence of the Higgs boson so that I don’t have to wait for the results from the Large Hadron Collider, which may take up a few months to gather. Much appreciated…--bb
Clint
· 1 year ago
photsphere was saying this ten years ago..."I anticipate a lot more will be coming to the conclusion that Nortel will not be around much longer at this rate." boring..........
Observer
· 1 year ago
You mean the economy is slowing ? Mark Sue is a genius. I've been saying this last summer. Keep shorting stocks. We are nowhere near the bottom of equities and the banking crisis is only halfway over.
$4-5 upside ? Give me what your smoking.
protosphere
· 1 year ago
That's not true Clint as I have only been tracking Nortel and its history since 2004 when the stock was trading around $80 adjusted, it made yet another new low today in the 5's by the way.
Why stalk just to be rude. Are you trying to kill this thread too.
Given the odds, if you buy more stock it will be more than excitement if that's what you are looking for. I am not sorry you find it boring as others appreciated the heads up from 90% ago.
concerned for jim
· 1 year ago
"That's not true Clint as I have only been tracking Nortel and its history since 2004 when the stock was trading around $80 adjusted"
Yes, I remember now. It was the same time you were making very loud calls for Nortel to $125 and if it didn't materialize, you would lose 6 digits and never return to the markets again.
Well you certainly lost your "6 digits" but in the process you lost something even more important.
Think about it fella.
Alllan Lee, BBA, CGA
· 1 year ago
Check your charts, they don't lie, analysts do. It's their job. stocks are nothing more than speculative instruments, especially NT
The Psychiatrist
· 1 year ago
You gotta wonder also where the heck is Michael Genovese and his "$35 price target" on Nortel?
Allen You are correct about analysts being liars,I remember once listening in on a CC and Mike Z making a comment towards one analyst about being "delinquent" ot to something of that effect.
At the time he said that, it's almost as if he was trying to imply that it was going to be inevitable that the rating coming from that particular analyst would be viewed as negative and so therefore Mike Z was rather skeptical about it.
I believe that it was also a mass collusion on the part of analysts to simultaneously upgrade Nortel immediately following the RS,as this was their opportunity to unload their shares ,as they knew that Nortel's turn around was years away and they figured they would swing trade Nortel instead of holding longterm.
It's not logical that about 15-18 analysts covering Nortel could all be giving price targets that were 3 or 4 times higher than current levels immediately following the RS and not one of them not know what kind of housecleaning that would be necessary at Nortel in order for Mike Z and the rest of his management team to reach the completion of the "business transformation plan" and also foresee how restructuring charges would be eating into their cash reserves,or that Nortel's CDMA business was a "technology in decline",heck there were jounalists writing about this as early as 5 years ago.
Nortel management knows very well what has taken place with the shareprice,but they are being held hostage by the power and influence that institutional money has over publicly traded companies like Nortel who are in transition ,after all it is they who afford whatever perceived value a stock is worth at any given time,and so therefore have no choice to but to bite the bullet on this conduct by analysts and the institutions they represent!
yes4aapl
· 1 year ago
The Psychiatrist You forgot to change your nick into more appropriate now, naiveSoB With that ID you were fallowing NT stock critics being Bearish on NT to laugh at them and their perfect predictions based on deep analysis. You liked all the Bullish targets, you did. http://disqus.com/people/54cd6cd4766aea41b2b815... btw Single digit business growth which Mike proclaimed on Q2 2008 is a lie. New orders decline faster than I can write a post about that, Mike Z found a treasure, $3 5 bill in deferred revenues placed there in 2004 accounting clean up. http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/...
Using that "revenue" he can always show margin improvements. That 's how it works. sha He thinks that public does not know about $3,5 bill deferred during restatements. We know it Mike Z and you are responsible to inform the public to the best of your ability and not to mislead investors into believing that Nortel's business is growing if facts are against you. And you The Psychiatrist You attacked the messengers of bad news in hope we can stop posting the truth here or there. Now you know the true story about NT stock. Look into the mirror Take your Zoloft as docs prescribed and stop pretending that you are a doctor.
yes4aapl
· 1 year ago
My post one week before the news! Before Sept 17 08 what did I write about single digit growth? ============================ btw Single digit business growth which Mike proclaimed on Q2 2008 is a lie. New orders decline faster than I can write a post about that, Mike Z found a treasure, $3 5 bill in deferred revenues placed there in 2004 accounting clean up.
Mark Evans Can you help me find Bo Gowan posts. I tried to search and nothing happens. The search engine is good only for body of your main posts. How to find a poster?
Mark Evans
· 1 year ago
yes4aapl,
You can use backtype.com as a way to find comments on blog, including Bo Gowan's.
Mark
more
· 1 year ago
Mark Sue: "oops, I forgot to divide by 3 in that previous stock price target calculation I made. My bad..."
Tired
· 1 year ago
Ha - funny. That helped kick my day off to a good start - thanks, "more".
broadbandbill
· 1 year ago
Mark,
Can you please provide more info on Mr. Sue’s analysis or a link to his report. His reasoning is a bit too broad; would like to see more substance…--bb
Mark Evans
· 1 year ago
bb,
As soon as I get more details, I'll edit the post.
All Comments
Thank for updating your post.
Correction: Mark Sue is implying that IT managers would stay with their incumbent suppliers (read: Cisco) thus making it more difficult for Nortel to snag market share away ‘incumbent enterprise networking vendors’ while your interpretation is somewhat different. Bottom line: if the alternative to Cisco is not well-positioned or appears weak then there is no alternative!
bb
Any analyst who changes their estimates on a company 10 times within a year tells me that their analysis wasn't much of an analysis to begin with.
Mark Sue -you put a price target of $32 on Nortel just a little over a year ago,now you've cut that target by a whopping 80 percent,this only leads me to believe that your analytical abilities are an embarrassment to you and your firm!
You are looking at a minimum of $4 - $5 move to the upside in less time than it took for the 5th wave to form based on Neowave theory on terminal impulse (Glen Neely)
20 was no buy a year ago and 3 years into this 5 year fix looks increasingly unlikely at this rate.
There were plenty of new lows made this year alone to be optimistic about forming any bottom and so many analysts traditionally error all the way down overstating so how much worse will it really get.
I anticipate a lot more will be coming to the conclusion that Nortel will not be around much longer at this rate. Alzman score is already off the charts,
Firstly dude (or dudes), you need to simplify your name(s). Try A+B +S=L^3. Second, just because we have no life (only people with no life post on blogs like this one) do not assume that we are suckers or stupid; we know that the Chinese walls within the brokerage firms are actually made in Taiwan :).
Third (and this is on a personal note), while you are doing all these ‘wave’ theories can you please tell me if any of them can confirm the existence of the Higgs boson so that I don’t have to wait for the results from the Large Hadron Collider, which may take up a few months to gather. Much appreciated…--bb
boring..........
$4-5 upside ? Give me what your smoking.
Why stalk just to be rude. Are you trying to kill this thread too.
Given the odds, if you buy more stock it will be more than excitement if that's what you are looking for. I am not sorry you find it boring as others appreciated the heads up from 90% ago.
Yes, I remember now. It was the same time you were making very loud calls for Nortel to $125 and if it didn't materialize, you would lose 6 digits and never return to the markets again.
Well you certainly lost your "6 digits" but in the process you lost something even more important.
Think about it fella.
stocks are nothing more than speculative instruments, especially NT
Allen You are correct about analysts being liars,I remember once listening in on a CC and Mike Z making a comment towards one analyst about being "delinquent" ot to something of that effect.
At the time he said that, it's almost as if he was trying to imply that it was going to be inevitable that the rating coming from that particular analyst would be viewed as negative and so therefore Mike Z was rather skeptical about it.
I believe that it was also a mass collusion on the part of analysts to simultaneously upgrade Nortel immediately following the RS,as this was their opportunity to unload their shares ,as they knew that Nortel's turn around was years away and they figured they would swing trade Nortel instead of holding longterm.
It's not logical that about 15-18 analysts covering Nortel could all be giving price targets that were 3 or 4 times higher than current levels immediately following the RS and not one of them not know what kind of housecleaning that would be necessary at Nortel in order for Mike Z and the rest of his management team to reach the completion of the "business transformation plan" and also foresee how restructuring charges would be eating into their cash reserves,or that Nortel's CDMA business was a "technology in decline",heck there were jounalists writing about this as early as 5 years ago.
Nortel management knows very well what has taken place with the shareprice,but they are being held hostage by the power and influence that institutional money has over publicly traded companies like Nortel who are in transition ,after all it is they who afford whatever perceived value a stock is worth at any given time,and so therefore have no choice to but to bite the bullet on this conduct by analysts and the institutions they represent!
You forgot to change your nick into more appropriate now, naiveSoB
With that ID you were fallowing NT stock critics being Bearish on NT to laugh at them and their perfect predictions based on deep analysis.
You liked all the Bullish targets, you did.
http://disqus.com/people/54cd6cd4766aea41b2b815...
btw
Single digit business growth which Mike proclaimed on Q2 2008 is a lie.
New orders decline faster than I can write a post about that,
Mike Z found a treasure, $3 5 bill in deferred revenues placed there in 2004 accounting clean up.
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/...
Using that "revenue" he can always show margin improvements. That 's how it works.
sha
He thinks that public does not know about $3,5 bill deferred during restatements.
We know it Mike Z and you are responsible to inform the public to the best of your ability and not to mislead investors into believing that Nortel's business is growing if facts are against you.
And you
The Psychiatrist
You attacked the messengers of bad news in hope we can stop posting the truth here or there.
Now you know the true story about NT stock.
Look into the mirror
Take your Zoloft as docs prescribed and stop pretending that you are a doctor.
what did I write about single digit growth?
============================
btw
Single digit business growth which Mike proclaimed on Q2 2008 is a lie.
New orders decline faster than I can write a post about that,
Mike Z found a treasure, $3 5 bill in deferred revenues placed there in 2004 accounting clean up.
Mark Evans
Can you help me find Bo Gowan posts. I tried to search and nothing happens. The search engine is good only for body of your main posts.
How to find a poster?
You can use backtype.com as a way to find comments on blog, including Bo Gowan's.
Mark
Can you please provide more info on Mr. Sue’s analysis or a link to his report. His reasoning is a bit too broad; would like to see more substance…--bb
As soon as I get more details, I'll edit the post.